Are Microsoft's Best Days Behind It?
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It's strange and almost silly to think of putting Microsoft on a death watch, but chatter is increasingly rising about the steady decline and dimming future for the world's largest and most successful software company. Just a couple of years ago Microsoft seemed an invincible force, yet an increasing number of pundits and solution providers are watching Microsoft with a distant eye to a glorious past rather than the promise of a bright future. Over the past week, I've had a few conversations with solution providers about the top vendors and where they'll line up in 2010. While none is taking Microsoft out of contention, the company doesn't pass their lips when they rattle off their top five. Top of mind awareness is owned by Cisco, HP, IBM, EMC, VMware and Google. Microsoft is a passive consideration. Last week, Mark Anderson of Strategic News Service wrote that Microsoft's days as a leader in the consumer market are over. He predicts that Windows 7 and Office 2010 are the last iterations Microsoft will field as solid performers in the consumer market. The trend, as he sees it, is consumers migrating to social networks and Web-based platforms, where Microsoft doesn't currently play well. Joe Wilcox, a former eWEEK writer and now BetaNews reporter, expanded upon Anderson's thoughts by saying the situation is much worse. Microsoft, he writes, was built not just as the platform of choice for IBM PCs, but rather on the strength of owning the standards for files and documents. As early 1995, Bill Gates warned of the threat the Internet posed to Microsoft since the standards--HTML, TCP, etc.--were open and not Microsoft standards. Fourteen years later, the plethora of different content standards--PDF, MP3, MP4, WVA--are fueling the growth of Adobe and Google at Microsoft's expense. Microsoft was one of the first major software vendors to recognize the potential of cloud computing (it was called Web services back then), but is a relative laggard in building out its cloud business. Much of Microsoft's hopes are pinned to Azure, the cloud-based version of Windows. Developers and ISVs see Azure as an extensible platform for cloud computing, but there are signs of trouble. Rumors are now circulating that Ray Ozzie, Azure's champion and technology guru successor to Bill Gates, is losing his political clout and is on his way out at Microsoft. Perhaps one of the most surprising signs of Microsoft's challenges is in security - or vulnerability to security threats. Microsoft has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past decade to improve the quality of its products and make them more resilient to security threats. Windows remains the operating system target of choice for hackers, but the rise of application-level attacks is pushing other software vendors and packages to the top of the vulnerability list. Adobe's growing security woes could be seen as an indicator of Microsoft's declining importance. All this said, I'm not counting out Microsoft. On top of Windows 7, Microsoft is rolling out a series of new products in databases, middleware, communications and security. It's cloud-based Exchange and SharePoint business is forming the foundation of its cloud computing franchise. And it retains the single largest network of channel partners, which is of course one of its greatest assets for maintaining relevancy. While the software giant is becoming muted in conversations, it's not unusual for it to come from behind and assert dominance. As one solution provider told me, Microsoft is rarely first on anyone's list and they have a great attribute for overcoming adversity. So what is Microsoft's future? Will it find its way to the next generation of technology and computing? Or will it end up on the dust heap with DEC, Wang and Netscape? |
Comments (7)
A business does not stay at the top of the heap long if customers hate the business. Many are finding the cost of fighting malware more expensive than the cost of hardware and the licence fees to M$. Some even buy a new PC rather than fight the malware. No one wants a PC they have to wrestle to get things done. For some people, time is money. For others there are better things to do with time. Folks who migrate to GNU/Linux or MacOS find their machines work trouble-free for years. They tell their friends. The fraction of users of PCs who have seen/used/heard of GNU/Linux is at critical mass. M$ will have a rapid descent from the mountain. Consumers are beginning to have choices in the market. Small businesses have not the economies of scale needed to support migration and may remain loyal for a time but large businesses can use web applications and thin clients to do almost everything more cheaply and more reliably. That leaves M$ with a market cut in half fairly soon, a year or two at most. Many who hate Vista are prime candidates for switching. It will be easier than migrating to "7".
Where I work, there is no consideration of migrating to "7". It will not run on any of our perfectly serviceable equipment but GNU/Linux will. We can convert the oldest equipment to thin clients with just a BIOS tweak. Compared to buying all new and paying for another round of licences and not getting away from malware, there is no contest.
Posted by Robert Pogson | December 17, 2009 10:56 AM
MSFT is increasingly clueless. their products are every more bloated and not what is truly needed or wanted by the users, enterprise or home. MSFT forgot several basic business operation concepts that even relate to software design. The most basic is from the late Ray Kroc, of McDonalds, KISS -- Keep it simple stupid!
While Win7 is better than Vista, that is not saying a great deal. MSFT is too busy trying to cram every "lock-in" they can into their operating systems without any clear understanding what is wanted or needed by users. The same is true for the MS Office series of products. There is a reason that Open Office is increasingly popular, it is simple to use. Office 2007 had and has too many issues that users do not care for including the "ribbons", it is also very slow and not overly user friendly.
MSFT is also likely to continue to face anti-trust actions and I fully expect to see a US Federal case against them, again. This time it will not likely be as "friendly" toward MSFT as the last one.
MSFT is not an innovator, they are just a bully. Many of the issues that were part of the cause in the prior anti-trust actions against MSFT, in the US and elsewhere, are creeping back into MSFT practices. MSFt does little innovation, but more take form others, and when in doubt buy the company. This started with DOX and Seattle Software and continues to today. Any part of tech MSFT is not in they try to bully their way in, with often questionable success. MSFT is long past their peak and have begun their way down a very slippery slope.
Posted by Dennis | December 17, 2009 11:40 AM
Microsoft is dying a slow and very painful death IMO.
Executives Balmer and Sinofsky have replaced the culture that made MS great to one where only "group-think" and head-nodding agreement is rewarded. MS is similar to the old IBM culture and the brain drain is stunning.
The best thing that could happen to MS is to have it broken up for its own good so each business unit can build its culture afresh and thrive or die on its own merits. Having a dozen little Microsoft could re-vitalize the industry and be out of the business of paying off the EU every 6 months.
Posted by anon | December 17, 2009 5:55 PM
I remember the days when Steve and the rest of the BLT were feared AND highly respected broadly in the company because they were really in touch with the company, dug really deep during reviews to make sure people really knew what they were doing and truly encourage open communications to the point of bluntness.
Back then, the company was focused on getting things done not having 20 MBAs in a room deciding if they should half a million dollars to analysts or focus groups for information they could have gotten in 5 minutes with the MS field. Over the past 5-7 years, you can't get anything done without getting approval from at least 3 directors, 4 GMs, 2 VPs and seeking buy-in from at least 30 strangers from groups that may or may not have any clue about what you do but will speak loudly and impatiently as they read emails during meetings.
Steve B should do MS, his shareholders and himself a big favor; shape up or ship himself out. He did great a long time ago. He's doing more harm than good now.
Posted by 10-year MSFT vet | December 18, 2009 5:41 AM
While there is obviously more competition in the desktop and cloud application environment that MS must go against, I think the article in question is either wishful thinking or just some red meat to throw to the anti-MS crowd. Sure, anything can happen in the future but to suggest that the demise of MS is imminent is pretty rediculous. Just as the old saying "nobody got fired for buying IBM" was so true back in the 70s, now it's "no writer gets fired for slamming MS".
Posted by Chuck (long time computer guy) | December 18, 2009 8:49 AM
Chuck, I couldn't agree with you more. Microsoft is one of those lighning rod companies that no matter what you do, you can't do right. Years ago I wrote an expose about Microsoft that was complimentary toward its efforts to improve security; I got slammed. On the other hand, I write something like this and I get mixed comments but they generally lean in the affirmative toward the negative positioning of Microsoft garners more support. Go figure.
Posted by Larry Walsh
| December 18, 2009 9:04 AM
No OS is perfect, no OS should have a monopoly, the more competition the better, and the tech environment is constantly changing. Thank goodness MS has to adapt and compete; thank goodness for alternatives.
That said, I have had a good experience with Windows 7, and IMHO, Office 2007 loads faster and is better for my purposes than OpenOffice (though I use OpenOffice on a secondary computer). As long as the cost of computer hardware keeps going down, there will be many people who do not want to entrust their data and programs solely to the cloud and access everything through a browser or cell phone. And, the last time I checked, MS was still competitive in the OS market.
Posted by Windows & Office User | December 18, 2009 12:57 PM