My phone rang early one morning about a month ago. A friend in the security industry that I've known for a long time called with a tip. “Get ready for this,” he said. “HP is going to pull the trigger on McAfee.”

Now those who have been around the security world long enough know that the pending acquisition of McAfee by a larger vendor is a perennial event. Five years ago, it was Microsoft buying Big Red. Then it was HP. Then it was Cisco. Then it was EMC. Now it's HP again.

I typically don't put much stock in such rumors, since nothing is done until it's done. But something changed. Over the past two weeks, a slew of end-of-year earnings reports showed security companies fared 2009 better than most others in the tech industry and the general economy. This got financial analysts buzzing about the possibility of large vendors like IBM, Cisco and HP that are flush with cash reserves snapping up security companies. The prime example: HP buying McAfee.

Why does an HP-McAfee deal look so attractive? HP is bulking up to continue the battle against longtime rivals IBM and Dell, while looking for weapons to fend off emerging threats by Cisco and Oracle/Sun. Every year, HP comes out with some security proclamation. Recently, it was stepped efforts in cloud security. Last year was the addition of firewall technology to its ProLiant servers. And over the past two years, it's created alliances with McAfee and Sophos to deliver security through its products and services divisions. Yet, few think of HP as a serious security player.

Adding McAfee to the HP portfolio will fill several major gaps in products and technology. And while McAfee's $2.5 billion annual gross revenue is a fraction of the HP total gross, it would help bolster the bottom line for number-hungry shareholders. With a market valuation of $6 billion to $8 billion, HP is one of a few companies that have the bank to make such a play.

Interestingly, though, is that investors are not just saying McAfee is a prime target. Other security vendors such as Fortinet, SourceFire and Check Point Software Technologies -- companies often seen as safe from the preying claws of corporate takeovers -- are potentials. Even Symantec, which could probably demand more than $15 billion, is listed as a potential takeover target.

What's the likelihood of McAfee going into play? Possible, but not necessarily probable.

What's the likelihood of smaller security companies being rolled up by larger vendors? More likely.

What's the likelihood of a new wave of security consolidation? Probable.

All of these cases are problematic for security solution providers, who will be thrown into a chaotic transition and assimilation to much larger programs. Take for example the experiences of CipherTrust partners. Over the past four years, they've gone through two major transitions. First, when CipherTrust was acquired by Secure Computing. The same process started again when Secure Computing was acquired by McAfee in September 2008. McAfee global channel leader Alex Thurber reports that finally assimilation of the Secure Computing program into the global McAfee program will happen in May, nearly 18 months after the acquisition.

At Symantec, it took years to straighten out the lines of communications and map channel programs for partners coming in from Veritas, Altiris and other companies assimilated like the Borg into the Big Yellow collective.

Wall Street's desires for big tech companies to grow their portfolios and revenue potential will more than likely force a series of acquisitions the likes of when Symantec bought Veritas and Juniper bought NetScreen. And this should worry solution providers, since acquisitions are nearly always disruptive to channel relationships and operations.